Tuesday, 30 October 2007

Immigration Statistics Anxiety: how 800,000 becomes 1,100,000

Am I the only one who’s befuddled by this immigration debate?

It seems that 800,000 should have been 1,100,000 and the Labour Force Survey is implicated.

Where should I look to find out more?

(Is it a case of errors in a residual? This is so often the curse of apparently very large and whimsical errors, but may not be the culprit in this case.)

In my naïve way, I can’t see why the aggregate figures can’t just be obtained by checking people as they come in and go out. (We are all checked, after all!)

The important things seem to be age/sex/birthplace/nationality, and maybe what the hell are you doing here and where are you going? (as it’s the local figures which are really important for policy terms)

Should the Radical Stats ImmigrationWatch Watch team be issuing a press release which I and the average Daily Mail reader can understand?

My main worry is that Immigration Anxiety and every other sort of Anxiety is rapidly becoming a Statistics Anxiety.

Sunday, 28 October 2007

Free entry to museums: problems from supply-driven economics

We're all in favour of making education affordable. But supply-side initiatives have their problems. Apart from the general ones (over-supply, bad faith etc), in museums there are two important distributive effects:

1. The 'National' museums to which free admission is granted tend to be in London and the South-East, thus benefiting Southerners and tourists. (Please don't think I've got anything against either .....)

2. Subsidising National museums makes it very difficult for local museums & others that do not have this subsidy.


An alternative subsidy could be: ..... Let EVERYONE have vouchers worth £X that can be used for entry to ANY museum. This would lead to more of a level-playing field.
==============


A belated response ......

We're all in favour of making education affordable. But supply-side initiatives have their problems. Apart from the general ones (over-supply, bad faith etc), in museums there are two important distributive effects:

1. The 'National' museums to which free admission is granted tend to be in London and the South-East, thus benefiting Southerners and tourists. (Please don't think I've got anything against either .....)

2. Subsidising National museums makes it very difficult for local museums & others that do not have this subsidy.


An alternative subsidy could be: ..... Let EVERYONE have vouchers worth £X that can be used for entry to ANY museum. This would lead to more of a level-playing field.


Best Regards
JOHN BIBBY aa42/MatheMagic
PS: Just been away. If any emails unanswered, please re-send..
1 Straylands Grove, York YO31 1EB (01904-330-334)

All statements are on behalf of aa42.com Limited, a company wholly owned by John Bibby and Shirley Bibby. See www.aa42.com/mathemagic and www.mathemagic.org


-----Original Message-----
From: big-chat@yahoogroups.com [mailto:big-chat@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Axel Hüttinger
Sent: 17 June 2007 12:30
To: big-chat@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [big-chat] We'll let museums charge admission again, say Tories

This might be interesting for the list:


We'll let museums charge admission again, say Tories

By SIMON WALTERS - More by this author »
Last updated at 10:51am on 17th June 2007

Comments Comments (25)



The Tories were at the centre of a fresh controversy after it was
revealed that they will scrap guaranteed free entry to top museums and
art galleries.

Shadow Culture Secretary Hugo Swire said his party would reverse
automatic free admissions introduced by Labour six years ago and allow
the attractions to restore entry charges.

He said that it would give museums more freedom over how to their run
their affairs and provide extra money to buy new paintings and exhibits
and improve facilities.

But Labour said the proposal would make it much harder for the less
well-off to have access to arts and culture. And they claimed it could
be the start of a whole raft of new Tory charges for public services.

*More....*

* Business displeasure as Cameron backs flexi hours for all parents

* Heseletine says Tories must restore 'power to the people'

* David Davis reignites grammar school row


"This would be a big mistake and a retrograde step,' Culture Secretary
Tessa Jowell told The Mail on Sunday.

"The policy of opening up museums and art galleries has hugely increased
visitor numbers, to the benefit of people from all classes and ages.

"David Cameron's party talks about wanting to be more inclusive and yet
they are promoting a policy that is a return to Thatcherism and would
exclude the less well-off."

Mr Swire told The Mail on Sunday: "We do not want to ban free
admissions, but we believe museums and galleries should have the right
to charge if they wish to. They could use the money to make their
facilities even better and could have special arrangements allowing
continued free access for children, students and others."

He said a Tory Government would restore Lottery funding to the arts,
which he said had been 'robbed' by Labour for other schemes.

And the Conservatives would set up a new 'national purchasing fund' -
with Government money - to buy new works of art.

The Conservatives are also considering abolishing targets set by Labour
for museums and galleries to attract more people from poor and ethnic
backgrounds.

They may be encouraged to return to concentrating on 'artistic excellence."

The introduction of free admission has seen the number of visitors to
large museums and galleries rise to a record 42million a year. Before
free entry, each visit could cost up to £25 for a family of four.

Attendances have boomed at the Victoria and Albert, the Natural History
and the Science Museum in South Kensington, London.

Visitors to Liverpool's eight national galleries have more than doubled.
The Museum of Science and Industry in Manchester and the National
Railway Museum in York have also thrived.

Prime-Minister-in-waiting Gordon Brown is firmly committed to retaining
free admissions to England's 24 national galleries and museums.

But Labour's scheme is not without its critics. Some museum directors
say the Government has not kept its promise to compensate them for loss
of income from entry fees.

And according to the Museums, Libraries and Archive Council, the middle
class still make up the majority of visitors to museums and galleries.
Part of the increased attendance could be the same people making more
visits, it says.

The British Museum and London's National Gallery, which have never
charged, have complained that the free entry policy resulted in some of
their funds being diverted to help others who had to drop charges.

--
Kurt Hüttinger GmbH
Mittelbügweg 90 - Schwaig bei Nürnberg - Germany
axel@huettinger.de
www.huettinger.de

Saturday, 27 October 2007

California fires

Why do all the recent California fires seem to stop at the Mexico border? Is the terrain so different - or are the Mexicans somehow in better control? (difficult to believe)

The fires that did NOT burn in Mexico may be like Sherlock Holmes's "dog that did not bark".)

It could be news blackout - 18 Mexicans died in the Gulf last week, but this seems to have been ignored (except briefly on BBC World Service).

In Wikipedia, references to this question and to the small number of fires in Mexico have been swiftly deleted by Americans.

The fact that the fires seem to have stopped at the Mexican border suggests that some at least were man-made, not natural.

Responses seem to have been characteristically brutal: one man was shot dead beacsue he was crouching and looked like he MAY have been starting a fire [http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,2198866,00.html California police shoot dead suspected arsonist]

Citation: "The Los Angeles Times said state police were also involved in the shooting, but it was not clear which force fired the fatal shot. Lieutenant Scott Patterson, of San Bernardino police, told the newspaper: "We don't know whether he was an arsonist ...""